My research has two objectives :

To develop knowledge of the cognifive processes underpinning judgment, risk communication, and decision-making.

To use this knowledge in the design of aids and learning tools for improving judgments and decisions in complex work situations.

This research is organised around three themes:

The first theme is concerned with the cognitive processes involved in the production of posterior probability judgments.

This work follows directly from my doctoral work. A first set of studies aim to investigate the role of the task representation and comprehension in the production of these judgements. This analysis should enable a better understanding of the origin of the judgment biases usually observed. It should also lead to the development of targeted and effective aids for improving these judgements.

This work was financed by a study grant from the Fyssen Fondation (Paris).

Within this theme, I also work on a project aiming to complete my doctoral work on the role of representativeness on posterior probability judgements. In a study of individual responses patterns I found that only 10% of individuals systematically use the representativness heuristic. The aim of this work will therefore be to establish the judgment strategies used by individuals who do not solely rely on the representativeness heuristic to make their judgements.

The second theme concerns the role of pragmatic inferences in risk communication. I am working with Pr. Denis Hilton (Université de Toulouse Le Mirail) on a study of the pragmatic function of probability words and quantifiers in medical and commercial settings. I am also working with Jean-Francois Bonnefon (Université de Toulouse Le Mirail) on a set of studies showing that probability words can be used as a politness marker rather than as devices for communicating vague uncertainty.

The third theme concerns the study of judgments and decisions as they occur in complex work situations.

My fundamental and applied research work is essentially motivated by the aim to help improving judgments and decisions in complex situations.

For example, I was a consultant psychologist on the BEEP research project (Bayesian Elicitation of Experts’ Probabilities), led by Pr. Tony O’Hagan and funded by the British National Health Institute (NHS). This project aimed to define the best procedures for eliciting expert knowledge from medical doctors, such as probability distributions, while controlling for judgement biases.

I also work in collaboration with Pr. Laurence Alison (INCSCID, International Centre for the Study of Critical Incident Decision Making) and Ciaran O’Keeffe on a project aiming to study the impact of the hindsight bias and accounting on police officers decision-making in real critical incidents (shooting incidents, criminal investigations, hostage negotations).